Traders may have bagged $40M-$50M on Trump's announcement to pause attacks

It’s still not clear who was behind Monday’s perfectly timed bets on stocks and oil that came just minutes before President Trump signaled a pause on Iran attacks – but the resulting windfall was likely worth between $40 million and $50 million, On The Money has learned.

Wall Street traders are now anticipating some regulatory scrutiny of the trades, which were made about 10 minutes before 7 a.m. ET on Monday – normally a lull in the markets. About 7,200 oil futures contracts changed hands with a value of $760 million, said veteran commodities trader Mike Khouw.

Around the same time, he said, there was frenzied buying of S&P futures – 6,000 contracts with an underlying or “notional” value of $2 billion.

Then came Trump’s 7:04 a.m. ET Truth Social post about “productive conversations” with Iran that sent crude oil prices down between 10% and 15% in the following minutes. Stocks, meanwhile, surged 4%.

It wasn’t just the timing of the bets but also their sheer size that immediately raised suspicions on Wall Street.

“People were definitely freaking out,” Khouw told On The Money. “We’ve all gotten our faces ripped off in the market but when something like this happens people get really pissed off since there was no real news that would foreshadow Trump’s posting.”

Khouw says he and other commodities traders believe whoever was behind the fortuitously timed action made off between $40 million and $50 million.

“You don’t know if this was one person or two or many,” he said. “What you do know is if they sold after the Trump post they made a lot of money. Not bad for 15 minutes of work.”