Turkey as Israel’s “next Iran”? A strategic rivalry reconsidered

When former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that Turkey, with the support of Qatar, was replacing Iran as Israel’s major strategic threat, his words were not just another warning about another enemy. Instead, his remarks reflected a broader anxiety: Israel could be entering a period of renewed conflict with a powerful and prosperous adversary—a situation that also carries historical significance.

For decades, Israel’s security concerns have been dictated by Iran and its Shi’a axis, including Iran’s plans for a nuclear program, Hezbollah’s missiles, and the undeclared wars in Syria and Lebanon. But Bennett’s words speak of a new axis: Turkey, a member of NATO with a thriving economy and global ambitions, is building a Sunni axis that might be even more powerful than Iran’s Shi’a axis. “Erdoğan is a sophisticated actor who understands how to turn ideology into leverage,” says Meliha Altunışık, a Turkish expert on international politics. “Unlike Iran, Turkey combines pragmatism with ideology, making it both credible and unpredictable.”

The mechanics of the new axis
The threat, as Israeli strategists see it, is not Turkey itself but Turkey and Qatar. The latter pair are accused of “nourishing the Islamic Brotherhood monster,” spreading an ideological threat similar to Iran’s support for Shi’a fundamentalists. Their influence is spreading in Syria and Gaza, and there are even rumors about attempts to win over Saudi Arabia from its rapprochement with Israel. The worst-case scenario: a new enemy axis consisting of Turkey and Qatar and their ally, Pakistan, with its nuclear capability.

As Steven Cook, a Council on Foreign Relations expert, writes, “Israel has long calibrated its defense strategy according to Iran’s capabilities. But if Turkey succeeds in swinging Saudi Arabia or solidifying its relationship with Pakistan, the strategic map changes overnight. It’s not just about the missiles emanating from Iran anymore—it’s about a Sunni world with nuclear capability.”...

Ultimately, what is behind the idea of Turkey as Israel’s “next Iran” is not simply the fear of encirclement, but the fear of a rival that is not only credible, but also prosperous, and carries a rich history. Iran is a dangerous foe, but also isolated. Turkey, on the other hand, is dangerous but also integrated. Iran is a foe that is revolutionary, but also sanctioned. Turkey, on the other hand, is a pragmatic foe and a trade hub.